"There is a quote by Paul Valery. He met Einstein at a party in the 1920s, and he asked him
'Do you carry a notebook' around?
Einstein asked, 'Why?',
and Valeria said 'To write down your ideas, to put them down,'
and Einstein said, 'I only have one idea.'
Conclusion:
To succeed, you only have to have one idea—two ideas, you’re dead.
Or at least this is how Nassim Taleb interprets this conversation.
He says he has only one big idea: UNCERTAINTY.
Uncertainty regarding markets has two parts:
i) math and computation
ii) psychology